Abstract:
ABSTRACT
Water is a crucial basic necessity for human survival and community health. The continuous population growth in Cibiru Village, Sariwangi District, Tasikmalaya Regency, demands an adequate supply of clean water, whereas the capacity of the existing supply system remains heavily limited and lacks systematic projection data. This study aims to determine the population dynamics and project the domestic and non-domestic clean water requirements in Cibiru Village over the next 10 years (2025–2035), as well as to analyze the balance between raw water supply and demand.
The research method employed is descriptive quantitative. Population growth projection was calculated using the Arithmetic Method based on historical data from 2015 to 2024. The evaluation of domestic water demand refers to the planning criteria of the Directorate General of Cipta Karya, Ministry of Public Works, for rural areas, set at 60 liters/capita/day, supplemented by a non-domestic demand allocation of 15% of the domestic demand, and a water loss factor of 15%. The water availability analysis was based on direct field discharge measurements of the existing spring source.
The analysis results show that the population of Cibiru Village is projected to increase from 2,506 people in 2025 to 2,696 people in 2035, with an average growth rate of 19 people/year. Along with this growth, the total clean water demand (after accounting for losses) increases significantly from 198,851 liters/day in 2025 to 213,928 liters/day in 2035. By the final projection year (2035), the maximum daily demand is estimated to reach 246,017 liters/day with a peak hour discharge of 4.98 liters/second. Meanwhile, the water availability from the existing source remains constant at only 69,120 liters/day (0.8 liters/second). The supply vs demand comparison demonstrates a widening water deficit condition, expanding from -129,731 liters/day in 2025 to -144,808 liters/day in 2035. To resolve this critical deficit, it is highly recommended to exploit new raw water sources (such as constructing deep tube wells), upgrade storage and distribution network infrastructure, and conduct routine pipe leakage controls.
Keywords: Population Projection, Arithmetic Method, Domestic Water Demand, Water Deficit, Supply vs Demand.
